Year 2024 / Volume 116 / Number 6
Letter
Forecast models to predict the demand for endoscopic procedures in a tertiary unit: a prospective validation

343-344

DOI: 10.17235/reed.2023.9763/2023

Maria Manuela Estevinho, Rolando Pinho, Ricardo Veloso, Tânia Rodrigues, João Correia, Pedro Mesquita, Teresa Freitas,

Abstract
Over the past few decades, there has been an exponential increase in the utilization of endoscopic procedures. Accurately predicting the demand is crucial for effective capacity planning and resource allocation in the endoscopic unit. However, predictive models are not integrated into current endoscopy software. To overcome this limitation, our group used data on the demand in our tertiary unit from 2015 to 2021 (83 months) to develop forecast models using exponential smoothing techniques adjusted for trend and seasonality (derivation phase). These models were recently published at the Revista Española de Enfermedades Digestivas.
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References
Calderwood AH, Calderwood MS, Williams JL, Dominitz JA. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Utilization of EGD and Colonoscopy in the United States: An Analysis of the GIQuIC Registry. Tech Innov Gastrointest Endosc. 2021;23(4):313-321. doi: 10.1016/j.tige.2021.07.003.
Pinho R, Veloso R, Estevinho MM, Rodrigues T, Lobo BA, Amorim-Lopes M, Freitas T. Predicting the future: introducing business analytics to endoscopy units. Rev Esp Enferm Dig. 2023 May;115(5):241-247. doi: 10.17235/reed.2022.9094/2022.
Huang Y, Xu C, Ji M, Xiang W, He D. Medical service demand forecasting using a hybrid model based on ARIMA and self-adaptive filtering method. BMC Med Inform Decis Mak. 2020 Sep 19;20(1):237. doi: 10.1186/s12911-020-01256-1.
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Citation tools
Estevinho M, Pinho R, Veloso R, Rodrigues T, Correia J, Mesquita P, et all. Forecast models to predict the demand for endoscopic procedures in a tertiary unit: a prospective validation. 9763/2023


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Publication history

Received: 02/06/2023

Accepted: 05/06/2023

Online First: 22/06/2023

Published: 04/06/2024

Article Online First time: 20 days

Article editing time: 368 days


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